Top Shelf: Blue Jackets can't keep Nash forever
Hockey Betting Lines
02/14/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With the NHL's trade deadline less than two weeks away, the rumor mill is churning faster and faster every day. On Monday, it finally spun out a name worth getting excited about.
For the most part, the deadline is used by some NHL teams to add depth needed for a playoff push, while teams who aren't in postseason contention try to sell off veteran assets to acquire cheaper prospects.
It's pretty rare that a bona-fide superstar is put on the block, but with the recent addition of Columbus forward Rick Nash to the mix, there could be a legitimate superstar to be had before the Feb. 27 deadline.
According to RDS, Canada's French-language equivalent of TSN, the Blue Jackets are open to trading Nash to a host of potential suitors. Of course, Columbus general manager Scott Howson will not confirm or deny the report, but the mere suggestion that Nash is available is enough to set off a race to acquire the sniper's services.
If the report is true and Columbus is seriously considering offers for Nash, it would seem that the New York Rangers would be one of the main suitors. The Rangers are the top team in the Eastern Conference, but the Blueshirts have done it more with defense and acquiring a big-time offensive talent like Nash could be the difference in winning a Stanley Cup or coming up short.
Landing Nash would most likely require New York to part with coveted forward prospect and current Boston College standout Chris Kreider. And that's just a starting point, as the Rangers would almost certainly have to include a player from their current NHL roster (Brandon Dubinsky's name has been mentioned already) and Columbus also will likely be seeking a first-round draft pick as well.
But, the Rangers won't be the only team dialing Howson's number in the coming weeks, and in the end, Nash's no-trade clause will ensure he has the final say on any potential trade.
Since being taken first overall by the Blue Jackets in the 2002 draft. Nash has become synonymous with Columbus hockey. However, through little fault of his own, Columbus hockey itself is synonymous with being a perennial doormat.
A five-time All-Star, Nash has averaged over 32 goals a season since breaking into the league in 2002-03. A one-man show, Nash has led the team in goals every year since his second season and that includes 2005-06, when he paced the Jackets with 31 goals despite playing in just 54 games. And, yes, the 27- year-old is leading Columbus in goals once again this season with 18 markers.
So what has changed now for the Blue Jackets that has reportedly led them to consider dealing Nash? In reality, the reason for his sudden availability is that nothing has ever changed in Columbus. The franchise has qualified for the postseason just once since entering the league as an expansion team in 2000 and with an NHL-low 38 points through 56 games this season, the Jackets are all but assured of going into the offseason early yet again.
For a franchise that has pretty much done nothing but lose since it came into existence, the club's failures this season have been especially hard to take. Columbus made waves in the offseason, signing defenseman James Wisniewski to a six-year, $33 million deal and acquiring centerman Jeff Carter in a blockbuster trade with Philadelphia.
Both Wisniewski and Carter have been dogged by injuries this year and neither is having a banner season. But, Carter has really been the fly in the ointment for Columbus. The former Flyer got off to an awkward start with his new club in the summer when he was unhappy with being dealt to Columbus and his 12 goals and eight assists in 35 games this season are a clear indicator that Carter has let his personal feelings get in the way of his play.
It's not surprising the Blue Jackets are actively trying to pass the disgruntled Carter onto another team before the trade deadline, but his failure to catch on in Columbus also has greased the wheels for Nash's potential departure. Nash was supposed to benefit from finally having a top- line centerman like Carter, but the two have obviously failed to develop chemistry, a fact that isn't all that surprising since Carter has always been better at scoring goals than setting up his linemates.
It's hard to keep a talent like Nash when Columbus seems to be forever stuck in a holding pattern. The Blue Jackets had full intentions of building a team around Nash, as evidenced by the eight-year, $62 million extension he signed in the summer of 2009, but it simply hasn't worked.
With the way the club has floundered again this season, Columbus is staring at yet another a rebuilding project and it just doesn't make much sense for the team or Nash to go through that process together. It's hard to rebuild what was never built in the first place and while dealing away the only game- changing piece the franchise ever had may seem counter-productive, both Nash and Columbus could benefit greatly from a fresh start.
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How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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